AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |
Back to Blog
Blockchain non fracked gas4/17/2023 ![]() ![]() ![]() The up-shot, according to BP, is that oil, coal and natural gas are dead in 20 years. Economists will quibble over when peak oil demand is reached, and how much market share fossil fuels will lose to non-carbon sources. Let’s stop for a moment to explain what BP is saying here. ![]() According to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Permian production could peak in 2021 versus the more optimistic 2025.) Shale companies are therefore money losers because they have to keep ploughing more money into production just to keep output flat, a phenomenon known as “The Red Queen Syndrome.” Shale wells typically bleed off 70 to 90% in their first three years, and drop by 20 to 40% a year without new drilling. This is because shale oil wells are gushers in their first year, then deplete rapidly. In October, Reuters reported that output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 68,000 bopd, to 7.6 million bopd. Not right away, but at most, the fast-depleting shale oil fields which produce via hydraulic fracturing and horizontal directional drilling, are likely to last another five to seven years. The US ‘Sultans of Shale’ have had it good for a long time, but the party in the Permian and other US oil shale basins is coming to an end. ![]() (At AOTH, we have already written the real story of fracked gas. The “rapid” scenario has NG demand peaking in 2035, returning to 2019 levels by mid-century. BP’s 2020 outlook shows demand for NG peaking in 2025 under net-zero, then falling to 36% below 2019 levels by 2050. Natural gas is also looking at a major reduction in usage. In contrast, coal sees the most dramatic decline, with demand for the dirtiest of fossil fuels dropping by a third by 2030 and around 90% by 2050. Under net zero, BP predicts solar and wind power will see explosive growth over the next 15 years, with demand reaching around 2,000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2035, quadruple the 500Mtoe used in 2019.īy 2040, use of renewables more than doubles again, to an amount equivalent to the current total from coal and natural gas combined. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), last year total energy-related CO2 emissions fell by 3.2%, with the power sector, which accounts for 34% of energy-related emissions across advanced economies, leading the decline.īut the need for electricity hasn’t decreased if fossil fuels in future account for a lower percentage of the global energy mix, the loss will have to be made up, from non-carbon sources. This is accomplished by significantly lower usage of fossil fuels, ie., coal, oil and natural gas. Here, global carbon dioxide emissions plummet by more than 95% by 2050, compared to their 2018 levels. The largest reductions in oil demand are modeled by BP’s “rapid” and “net-zero” scenarios. The magnitude of the fall in demand depends on the degree to which global carbon emissions are addressed/ cut by governments and industry. While earlier editions of BP’s outlook stated that global demand would continue rising steadily, peaking in the mid-2030s, the latest version sees the decline as much more dramatic, with peak demand already reached in 2019, and either slowing down or plateauing over the next three decades. According to the oil major’s 2020 outlook, global oil demand will not regain levels reached last year, and that demand could soon fall rapidly, due to stronger climate action by countries, by at least 10% over the next 10 years, and up to 50% by 2040.ĭemand for the fossil fuel has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2019. Recently, British Petroleum (BP) went public in declaring that “peak oil demand” was reached in 2019. ![]()
0 Comments
Read More
Leave a Reply. |